when did 14 days to flatten the curve start

Who wouldve ever thought? The virus does not seem lethal in most cases if proper medical oversight is given. On March 16, 2020, the Trump administration released a 15-day planto slow the spread of the coronavirus in the US. That was the argument: Stay healthy, keep the hospitals from being overloaded. People in car crashes, people with cancer, pregnant women who have complications during delivery all those people risk getting a lesser caliber of care when a hospital is trying to cope with the chaos of an outbreak. 15 Days to Flatten the Curve Indeed, this mass suffering has already begun in many parts of the world. Line shows 7-day moving average of new cases per day in this state. - Greg Lukianoff. Is all that economic pain worth trying to stop COVID-19? This suggests that the flatten-the-curve message might have armed them with the knowledge they needed to draw their own conclusions about social distancing measures without needing to rely as strongly on trusting experts. Canadian PM Trudeau followed suit the following day and told the citizens of Canada that they need to be angry at the unvaccinated for spreading covid, using his pulpit to dehumanize and threaten people for their personal medical choices. What does the coronavirus mean for the U.S. health care system? 2022 NewsWars 'Flattening the curve may be the worlds best bet to slow - STAT DeSantis critical of China, hazy on Ukraine as he charts foreign policy path. Rivers and colleagues from Harvards T.H. All rights reserved. Listen to this divisive rhetoric. Taiwan* New cases confirmed each day (7-day-average) down The first case of COVID-19 in Taiwan* was reported 992 days ago on January 21, 2020. Not wanting to be left out,President Bidenalso spoke up, once again falsely claiming that we are in a pandemic of the unvaccinated and telling vaccinated people that there is nothing to worry about despite the recent surge in hospitalizations among the vaccinated population. 1600 Daily is the White Houses evening newsletter. Not only on the individuals who end up not getting sick but all of the people that they would have ended up infecting. I thought the concentration camps were working. But even as testing capacity has improved in the last week, hospitals have faced a shortage of swabs needed to perform tests particularly in states like Missouri, Michigan, Ohio, and Washington. Are you a health care worker affected by the coronavirus outbreak? '", "virus does not spread easily from contaminated surfaces. Published: March 15, 2020 at 11:21 a.m. What we got, of course, was something much more far reaching, radical, and disastrous for both the economy and forlong-term health problems. Best Debt Consolidation Loans for Bad Credit, Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower, Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or Lower. "I think that's where federal leadership fell short because on the national stage, we had the former president downplaying the importance, where on the front lines, we were seeing a different picture.". This article was published more than1 year ago. - We've Got to do Something! )So where do we go from here? Without that kind of data, public officials have been loath to take the types of measures that would help to flatten the countrys epidemic curve. The WHO now endorses the Swedish model, which isbased on increasing healthcare capacity while relying primarily on voluntary social distancing. That is what the curve represents. Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, and most people will become infected. Will Giesecke be proven correct? Reporting and analysis from the Hill and the White House, Its time to talk about flattening the curve again. Thus, on April 2, Anthony Fauci, one of the lead bureaucrats on the White Houses COVID-19 advisory commission insisted that mandatory social distancingcould not be eased until further notice: If we get to the part of the curve where it goes down to essentially no new cases, no deaths for a period of time, I think it makes sense that you have to relax social distancing, [Fauci] added. This chart became the visual mantra that defined the initial pandemic response in the U.S., says Nan Li, a professor of life sciences communication at UWMadison who led the research. Sweden has put in place a very strong public health policy, Mike Ryan said, but unlike many other countries has chosen to rely on its relationship with its citizenry and trust them to self-regulate. I would suggest that people not underestimate how effective the chart was based on this finding alone, because the popularity of this chart itself is strong evidence of how important the message was and how critical it is for scientists to send the right message out about something like this, she says. For donating, please view the following page by clicking here. Despite the economically devastating draconian lockdowns that killedcountless small businesses, vaccine passports, and mask mandates, COVID-19 returned with a vengeance. Former President Trump announced his "15 days to slow the spread" campaign one year ago, which urged Americans to stay home to combat the coronavirus pandemic. Suck it up, do your share, so that therell be a lot more life to live yet after this period. A year later, Trumps 15 days to slow the spread - CNBC I Will Not Be Silenced! 14 Days to Flatten the Curve Meme. Let Big Tech and the corporate media know they are powerless in stopping the spread of truth by visiting our store now! "What ought to be "common sense" is speaking the truth to the American people, even when situations are challenging and demoralizing. "There was so much we didn't know about this disease at the time," Wen said. Policy decisions can, and should, be based on more than safety alone. For some, the only control they are able to find during these uncertain times is through clinging to a false sense of safety and trusting the guidance of established authorities as gospel. Clearly we can no longer rely on them to make decisions which benefit freedom and liberty. The epidemic curve, a statistical chart used to visualize when and at what speed new cases are reported, could be flattened, rather than being allowed to rise exponentially. You can still get COVID, but its highly unlikely that youll become seriously ill, Biden said. The virus is spreading, were are told, including widely throughout the vaccinated population, because of the unvaccinated who are now dirty non-citizens., On Tuesday, French President Macron gave an interview to the La Parisien, in which he dehumanized the unvaccinated and urged other citizens to hate them, likening them to their worst enemies., I am not about pissing off the French people, Macron told the readers of Le Parisien. Alessandro Vespignani, director of the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University, is gravely worried about what hes hearing from contacts in Italy, where people initially played down the outbreak as a kind of flu, he said. Those measures include banning concerts, sporting events, and other mass gatherings, closing movie theaters, telling people who can telecommute to work from home, and potentially closing schools. That means that we know we should be doing it. If you look at the curves of outbreaks, they go big peaks, and then come down. Vespignani, along with colleagues, published a recent modeling study in Science that showed travel restrictions which the United States has adopted to a degree only slow spread when combined with public health interventions and individual behavioral change. Everyone who can telecommute should be required to do so. Indeed, two weeks earlier, the Hawaii Department of Education had already abandoned its declaration about the need for no new cases, with the department director backpedaling furiously andstating: We would expect to be living with COVID-19 for a long time, and to have to wait for the last case to have occurred and another 28 days probably is not going to happen, so I believe that was really a placeholder.. Its healthcare system has not been overwhelmed, he said, adding that its approach could be a model for other countries when lockdowns begin to relax. Legitimate disagreement within the scientific community is common, but perhaps never before has the debate played out so publicly or with such high stakes. In other words, the containment strategy favored by Fauci and Emanuel is dead (for now). Hospitals in New York, Chicago, Seattle, and Washington, DC have also reported a shortage of face masks, which could potentially lead more healthcare workers to get exposed the virus. ", "I cannot see that all of a sudden, next week or two weeks from now, it's going to be over," he said in an interview with the Today show. And so the more that we can minimize it, the better.. "If we can get all of America to pitch in for the next 15 days, we can flatten the curve. - Dr. Jerome Adams, U.S. I think the whole notion of flattening the curve is to slow things down so that this doesnt hit us like a brick wall, said Michael Mina, associate medical director of clinical microbiology at Bostons Brigham and Womens Hospital. Indeed, the Chinese-style containment strategy has failed so completely thateven the WHO has abandoned it. A new study from University of WisconsinMadison researchers has found that the message spread far, reaching nearly three-quarters of Americans by August 2020. How are people supposed to find work if this goes on in some form for a year and a half? And how do the lockdown tyrants respond? White House chief medical officer Dr. Anthony Faucitold congressional lawmakers on March 12, 2020 just days before Trump's 15-day guidance that the U.S. wasn't able to test as many people for the disease as other countries, calling it "a failing.". "And of course, the rest is history. Youll experience severe illness in many cases.. CDC / The Economist / Drew Harris / Nan Li, Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, one message became ubiquitous: flatten the curve.. Ending the Pandemic: Exponential Growth and Decay BR COVID-19 in Pennsylvania: One year into the pandemic That was 663 days ago. At the end of the day, they cost more lives than they saved. Just last week, President Biden stated: If we do our part, by July 4th, theres a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard and celebrate Independence Day Small groups will be able to get together.This is supposed to be encouraging to the American public? Chan School of Public Health have looked at what U.S. hospitals might endure if Wuhan-scale spread occurred in this country. Serology testing is now supporting these assumptions. The redder the background, the bigger the upward trend of new cases in this state. A person checks in at security at an international departure terminal at John F. Kennedy Airport in New York on March 7. Search interest in the term plateaued at the end of May 2020 and then basically stopped after that August. Everyone can do their part. Thestudy from the NBERfound that these restrictions not only failed to save lives, and greatly exacerbated the destruction of the working class but have in fact resulted in anincreaseof excess mortality. This will be the detriment of many already dead and countless more that will die from this virus (particularly in a contintent like Africa). The recent emergence of the quick-spreading omicron variant combined with some initial reports suggesting that it may be less dangerous than the original variant reports that have been disputed have reintroduced the idea that containment measures be loosened to allow it to spread. In this visualization, states that appear in shades of orange have experienced a growth in new cases over the past two weeks. If he had been honest from the start, Americans would have understood and industry would have stepped up and made masks just like they did with hand sanitizer. And fewer people in the hospital meant not only fewer people dying from covid-19 but less risk that hospitals would be unable to care for other, non-covid patients. The fear mongering is just going to ramp up as the weeks go on. But eight days after the plan came out, the US continues to witness dramatic daily spikes in coronavirus cases. A version of the chart and the phrase flatten the curve first appeared in a 2007 report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about ways to control the spread of a pandemic. Individuals were told that this was their "World War II" and the most patriotic thing they could do is sit at home and watch Netflix. As TFTP hasreported, we predicted this. "We can see that the US trajectory is on par with where China, Italy, and Spain were at a similar stage of the epidemic in their countries," Morrato said. The story behind the coronavirus 'flatten the curve' chart - Fast That was the idea of flattening the curve , reducing exposure to the virus to limit the number of people who fell ill and, by extension, who needed to be Polling shows that those who arent vaccinated and Republicans (groups with a lot of overlap) see vaccination more as a personal choice than a social responsibility. 10 out of 17 million people have to be infected. These facts have led me to the following conclusions. And if youre unvaccinated, you have some reasons to be alarmed. States that appear in shades of green have seen declines in cases over the same period of time. What did come, however, was a slew of arbitrary and oftenridiculous mandatesand decrees from politicians who think that government force can stop a pandemic. 700 Days Into 14 Days To Flatten The Curve And The Only Also in June, TFTP covered the findings of anMIT scientist who reporteda data analysis of the economic impact of the lockdown noting that whilst it played a key contributing role to the sharp rise of unemployment, it did not make a significant reduction in deaths. We are now nearly two years, 2 presidents, 6 trillion dollars, and countless stolen rights into slowing the spread. With interventions like social distancing and mask wearing, the CDC said, the peak of infections could be delayed and lowered, and the total number of infections could be reduced. The 7-day average daily number of positive cases fell from 1,906 on Aug. 13 to 1,859 on Aug. 16. The virus does not seem lethal in most cases if proper medical oversight is given. according to infectious diseases expert Osterholm, it has 10 15 times the fatality rate of the flu. And that is a bad place to be.. So far more than 22,000 Americans have tested Over the last two years, one of the largest power grabs in the history of the world has taken place as fearful citizens willingly surrendered their rights to the state for the promise of safety. A look back at the first coronavirus guidelines issued by the federal government demonstrates just how little was known at the time about the virus that has sickened almost 30 million Americans and killed at least 535,000 in the U.S. WebThe first case of COVID-19 in Germany was reported 987 days ago on January 26, 2020. Although we didnt see a difference in peoples ideas or behavioral intentions based on their awareness of the chart, the message is still beneficial because theres some evidence that it allowed people to form a more informed decision without relying on trust.. Though public-health officials view social distancing as a necessary measure to contain the outbreak, work-from-home and no-travel rules are already having a profound effect on the national economy. The arrival of omicron as winter nears has led to a surge in new cases around the globe and in the United States, including in better-vaccinated states. In the early days of the COVID-19 panicback in mid-Marcharticles began to appear pushing the idea of flattening the curve (the Washington Post ran an article Many governors and mayors nonetheless continued to claim that they would not allow any easing of the lockdowns until cases began to decline, or until testing became widespread. pic.twitter.com/wHYFL5r1wj, Matt Agorist (@MattAgorist) December 26, 2021. But this is the problem, that people arent recognizing that we are at this moment and we can make a decision right now to flatten this curve by being OK with wondering if were being melodramatic, he said. The emphasis is only on social distance, wear three masks, and wait for a vaccine." Stopping containment measures too early, she added, could cause the virus to rebound later on. But it increasingly seems that such a scenario is wishful thinking. ", Dr. Deborah Birx, who served as the White House Covid-19 Task Force coordinator under Trump, offered a glimpse last week into the early confusion over the science. Flattening the curve worked until it didnt - Vox Be concerned about omicron, but dont be alarmed. None of it made much difference against the virus, it turned out. 60%). Notably, the 15-day guidance made no mention of who should seek out testing and under what circumstances. Neither does it decrease mortality from COVID-19, which is evident when comparing the UKs experience with that of other European countries. Nonetheless, one is still likely to encounter rabid COVID warriors on social media, who think that interminable lockdowns will (somehow) significantly reduce the overall total deaths from COVID-19. We dont want to go that route, Rivers told STAT. This is the type of rhetoric that always lead to a two-tiered society in which the dehumanized sect suffers immensely under the authoritarians. Should we be canceling our flights? The idea was to limit the daily rise of those in need of treatment to within the healthcare capacity. Mina agreed: Without a very clear signal coming from our government at the national level, its really just like a small trickle as people start to recognize that this is happening.. Early on, we were told one of the most challenging aspects of COVID-19 was that individuals could spread the virus even if they showed no symptoms. But the quarantines, unprecedented in modern times, appear to have prevented explosive outbreaks from occurring in cities outside of Hubei province, where Wuhan is located. Harvards top infectious diseases epidemiologist Lipsitch projects deaths in the millions. A look back reveals how little was known about the virus, public health specialists said. "If we can get all of America to pitch in for the next 15 days, we can flatten the curve. - Dr. Jerome Adams, U.S. Vaccines were, in a way, the inheritor of the sentiment behind flatten the curve. The idea there was that people could take steps (staying at home more, social distancing) that would help the community broadly (by not overwhelming hospitals). Mar 11, 2021 2 min read 14 DAYS TO FLATTEN THE CURVE Open Letter to Members of the Legislative Assembly March 11, 2021 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 13.000. "The evidence from other nations is clear: Longer periods of time will be needed to reverse the tide.". A week ago, the Trump administration released a 15-day plan to slow the spread of the coronavirus in the US. Fair Use Notice can be found in this link. In a tweet on Sunday, President Trump suggested there should be a limit to how long social distancing can reasonably be enforced. We are all wondering if our actions are melodramatic. More than 70% of respondents said they were very likely to engage in social distancing, while about 40% thought that the pandemic could be brought under control with these interventions. But by taking certain steps canceling large public gatherings, for instance, and encouraging some people to restrict their contact with others governments have a shot at stamping out new chains of transmission, while also trying to mitigate the damage of the spread that isnt under control. Thenewnarrative was this: the death toll will simply be too gruesome and unbearable to allow people to continue on with some semblance of an ordinary life. That would have less people infected. But everyone has to comply, or be forced to comply for the benefit of all. #coronavirus #disruption #innovation. In June, we reported on the study from the National Bureau of Economic Research which analyzed data from 44 countries and all 50 states. The next two weeks will be "absolutely critical" for containing the virus, Elaine Morrato, dean of the Parkinson School of Health Sciences and Public Health at Loyola University Chicago, told Business Insider. This is the strategy., He declared that worst enemies of democracy are lies and stupidity, then declared that his government is putting pressure on the unvaccinated by limiting, as much as possible, their access to activities in social life.. We also want to express great appreciation to the American people. Despite the snark now, if the goal of American health authorities in March 2020 was to flatten the curve, then they were successful. Who knows, maybe it will save a lot of lives.. All Rights Reserved. Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. All the tyranny in Australia has worked to flatten the curve! This is why anti-lockdown protesters have taken to the streetsacross the planetto protest the lockdown tyrants. And with it went the idea of flattening the curve. On any normal day, health systems in the United States typically run close to capacity. Trudeau blames unvaccinated for everything pic.twitter.com/vhw9QqvsmL, Roberto Wakerell-Cruz (@Robertopedia) January 5, 2022. The measures did contain the spread of influenza but were abandoned within 18 days, once it became clear that the H1N1 influenza virus, albeit widespread in One year of 15 days to flatten the curve by Ray Fava March 16, 2021 in Opinions, Videos NOQ Report Is Moving to AmericaFirstReport.com March 16, 2020 is the day in which President Donald Trump largely caved to the demonic forces surrounding him. I know I speak on behalf of the President and our entire team when I say how grateful we are for governors all across the country and the seamless partnership that we have forged with them and with state health officials, Vice President Mike Pence said yesterday. You would think between growing herd immunity and the deployment of three vaccines, unnecessary nanny state regulations on individuals and businesses would start to diminish, and in some places they certainly have. But it probably will increase the chances that they surreptitiously gather indoors Rules that are really more about showing that youre doing something versus doing something thats actually effective are counterproductive." Members of the Trump administration advocated that the virus just be allowed to spread to get to herd immunity. That was 663 days ago. "Comfort and physical safety are boons to humanity, but they bring some costs, too. What happened after that? This is historical material frozen in time. By late April, numerous states governors and municipal officials were discussing ways to scale back their lockdowns. By clicking Sign up, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider "With several of weeks of focused action we can turn the tide and turn it quickly.". Seattle is already in the thick of it. "This is where technology really begins to take us forward in leaps and bounds.". (Really, that happened.) Reporting from the frontiers of health and medicine, You've been selected! When the WHO declared COVID a pandemic, across the world the strategy was to "flatten the curve" of infections rising over time. Without weighing economic and civil liberty concerns, the decisions made often result in unrealistic policies that will not have the buy-in necessary from the population at large to be effective. WebWhen did "flatten the curve" start meaning get infection spread to zero? Unnecessary large gatherings should be canceled. Federal guidelines advise that states wait until they experience a downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period before proceeding to a phased opening. Johns Hopkins experts in global public health, infectious disease, and emergency preparedness have been at the forefront of the international response to COVID-19. Saskia Popescu, an epidemiologist and biodefense professor at George Mason University, said the "15 days to slow the spread" guidance demonstrated "a lack of awareness for managing outbreak response." That argument has been counterproductive, Mike Ryan, the head of the WHOs health emergencies program, said Monday. "There were people with legitimate credentials and stellar careers that were feeding information, and I had never seen that before, and that was enormously difficult," Birx said Thursday at a virtual symposium hosted by the New York Academy of Sciences and NYU Grossman School of Medicine. Again, weve seen that increases in coronavirus infections have, in fact, strained intensive care units since the pandemic began.
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